Policies

Ethiopia's Results-Based Aid (RBA) program

Context

Ethiopia's education system has seen notable reforms and advancements, with a particular emphasis on improving access and quality across all levels of education. A major focus has been on lower secondary education, which includes grades 9 and 10. The Ministry of Education, working closely with international partners, has launched several initiatives to boost educational outcomes, narrow gender gaps, and tackle regional disparities. However this intervention relates to a pilot project that focuses a specific approach that has been adopted by various other projects as well to understand the impact of the result orientation in terms of the funding and aid provision.

Solution 

In early 2012, the UK's Department for International Development (DFID) initiated a Results-Based Aid (RBA) pilot project with Ethiopia’s Ministry of Education (MoE). The goal was to improve access to and the quality of lower secondary education, specifically for grades 9 and 10, focusing on both boys and girls, especially in Ethiopia’s four emerging regions, which are less developed than the seven non-emerging regions. The pilot aimed to increase the number of grade 10 students taking and passing the Ethiopian General Secondary Education Certificate Examination (EGSECE) during 2012, 2013, and 2014.

To encourage this improvement, DFID offered up to £10 million annually over three years to the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) to increase the number of students sitting for and passing the EGSECE. Table E.1 details the compensation amounts for each additional student, with higher amounts allocated for girls and students from emerging regions than boys and students from non-emerging regions. These reward payments were based on the increase in sitters and passers each year relative to the previous year, following an 'adjusting' or rolling baseline. Notably, the payments for additional sitters were awarded regardless of their exam performance.

Impact

Based on the evaluation, no direct evidence illustrated that increases in the number of grade 10 exam takers and passers in either the emerging or non-emerging regions were due to the RBA pilot. Furthermore, while there was a reduction in some gender inequalities during the pilot period, there was no indication that the RBA pilot sped up progress toward gender equality. Several factors might have contributed to the increased number of grade 10 exam participants and passers beyond the pilot, including rising student enrollment from other GoE or donor-supported programs.

Moreover, it was impossible to determine how many exam sitters and passers were directly linked to the RBA, as there was no real counterfactual. The GoE’s decision to implement the program nationally, based on its equity policies, prevented the isolation of the RBA's effects. Additionally, the success or failure of the RBA interventions was assessed using norm-referenced exams, which measure students' performance relative to their peers rather than against a fixed standard of proficiency.It is important to emphasize that the lack of evidence connecting the RBA to these results does not mean no positive outcomes were achieved. The independent verification process was rigorous, ensuring that all payments were made based on verified outcomes. The Government utilized the funds obtained through the RBA to enhance the quality of education in Ethiopia.

Analysis

The Results-Based Aid (RBA) pilot, initiated by the Department for International Development (DFID) and Ethiopia’s Ministry of Education (MoE), represented a bold endeavor to enhance educational outcomes at the lower secondary level. While no concrete evidence directly links the increases in the number of exam takers and passers to the RBA pilot, the program illuminated the intricacies of educational interventions and the difficulties in pinpointing their specific effects. It emphasized the necessity for thorough evaluation and verification procedures to maintain accountability and transparency in the disbursement of funds. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the RBA pilot's direct impact, the initiative played a role in advancing overall efforts to elevate the quality and accessibility of education in Ethiopia, supporting the nation’s equity policies and long-term educational aspirations.